Advanced Manufacturing in an Unpredictable World: 2026

Happy New Year from London! Today, I’ll talk to you about how export-dependent economies differentiate through capabilities, not scale. 

Across the global economy, a group of export-dependent countries face a common challenge: remaining deeply integrated in global value chains while managing rising geopolitical, technological, and supply-chain risks.

Countries such as Finland, Sweden, Germany, Japan, South Korea, the Netherlands, Switzerland, Singapore, Canada — and increasingly Turkey (since it has been one of my focus areas) share exposure to external shocks, yet differ sharply in how they create value through advanced manufacturing.

The key differentiator is not industrial size, but how national strategies translate into firm-level capabilities.

1.GERMANY: Systems leadership and industrial orchestration

Strategic position

Germany differentiates by integrating machinery, software, standards, and services into coherent industrial systems. Value is created not by individual components, but by controlling how complex production environments function as a whole.

Our economic consulting team prioritized 4 companies and ran their correlation in a global scale of effectiveness. And our results show that Germany’s economic advantage lies in “system-level control”rather than cost or speed.

Value-creating companies in our analysis included: 

• Siemens: industrial automation, digital twins, smart factory systems

• Bosch: sensors, Industry 4.0 platforms, precision manufacturing

• Trumpf: advanced laser systems enabling high-precision production

• SAP:!industrial software and manufacturing data integration

2.JAPAN: Precision, reliability, and irreplaceable components

Strategic position

Japan focuses on ultra-high-precision manufacturing and technologically irreplaceable components embedded deep within global supply chains.

Again, we’ve prioritized 4 Japanese companies and ran their correlation in a global scale of effectiveness. And our results show that Japan’s influence comes from being indispensable rather than visible.

Value-creating companies in our analysis included: 

• Fanuc: robotics and automation systems

• Keyence: sensors and factory automation with unmatched margins

• Tokyo Electron: semiconductor manufacturing equipment

• Shin-Etsu Chemical: advanced materials critical to electronics

3.SOUTH KOREA: Speed, scale, and strategic concentration

Strategic position

South Korea differentiates through rapid scaling of advanced manufacturing in strategically chosen sectors, tightly aligned with national priorities.

Value-creating companies include: 

• Samsung Electronics: semiconductor manufacturing at scale

• SK Hynix: memory technologies critical to global electronics

• LG Energy Solution: advanced battery manufacturing

• Hyundai Motor Group: smart manufacturing and electrification

Speed and coordination define South Korea’s competitive edge.

4.NETHERLANDS: Chokepoint technologies and leverage

Strategic position

The Netherlands has built outsized influence by controlling critical chokepoint technologies in global manufacturing systems. 

Value-creating companies: 

• ASML: extreme ultraviolet lithography, essential to advanced chips

• ASM International: atomic layer deposition technologies

• NXP Semiconductors: automotive and industrial chips

Owning a bottleneck can outweigh overall economic size.

5.SWEDEN: Sustainability-driven advanced manufacturing

Strategic position

Sweden integrates advanced manufacturing with sustainability, electrification, and circular industrial models.

Value-creating companies

• Volvo Group: electrified and autonomous manufacturing systems

• ABB: robotics, automation, and energy-efficient production

• Sandvik: advanced materials and digital manufacturing solutions

• Northvolt: next-generation battery manufacturing

Sweden’s economy is on a gradual recovery path, with GDP growth forecast to rise from ~1.5% in 2025 to ~2.6% in 2026, inflation near 2%, and borrowing costs reflected in a policy rate around 2.25%. These conditions support the integration of sustainability directly into advanced manufacturing, turning low‑carbon production into a comparative advantage that enhances resilience and competitiveness.

Sustainability is embedded directly into production capability.

By integrating electrification, energy efficiency, and circularity into manufacturing systems, Sweden turns sustainability into a structural cost and resilience advantage, reducing energy intensity by an estimated 15–25% and positioning low-carbon manufacturing to account for over half of industrial value added by the early 2030s.

6.FINLAND: Deep tech, trust, and industrial resilience

Strategic position

Finland focuses on high-trust industrial ecosystems, deep technology, and niche excellence in advanced manufacturing.

Value-creating companies

• Kone: smart elevators and vertical mobility systems

• Wärtsilä: advanced marine and energy manufacturing

• Nokia: industrial networks and private 5G for factories

• Valmet: automation and process technologies

Resilience is built through trust, specialization, and digital depth. Tariffs primarily hit commoditized goods. Finland’s advantege is in producing highly specialized, high-margin, technologically embedded products, that will partially reduce the sensitivity to current global market conditions.

7.SWITZERLAND: High-margin specialization and precision

Strategic position

Switzerland differentiates through low-volume, high-margin manufacturing with extreme precision.

Value-creating companies:

• ABB: industrial automation and electrification

• Roche: pharmaceutical manufacturing excellence

• Nestlé: advanced food manufacturing and process innovation

• GF Machining Solutions: precision machine tools

Specialization replaces scale as a resilience strategy.

8.SINGAPORE: Manufacturing as a platform

Strategic position

Singapore positions advanced manufacturing as a national platform connecting capital, talent, and global firms.

Value-creating companies

• ST Engineering: advanced aerospace and defense manufacturing

• GlobalFoundries (Singapore operations): semiconductor manufacturing

• Flex: advanced electronics manufacturing services

Manufacturing is treated as strategic infrastructure.

9.CANADA: Advanced manufacturing, natural advantage

Strategic position

Canada integrates advanced manufacturing with energy, critical minerals, and aerospace ecosystems.

Value-creating companies

• Bombardier: advanced aerospace manufacturing

• Magna International: automotive systems manufacturing

• CAE: simulation and advanced training systems

Industrial strength is amplified by resource security.

10.TURKEY: Speed, flexibility, and regional integration

Strategic position

Turkey’s opportunity lies in moving from volume-based production to speed-driven, customizable advanced manufacturing, leveraging its geographic position between Europe, MENA, and Asia.

Value-creating companies include:

• Vestel: smart electronics and rapid manufacturing cycles

• Arçelik: advanced home appliance manufacturing and sustainability

• TUSAŞ (Turkish Aerospace Industries): aerospace and defense manufacturing

• Ford Otosan: smart factories and electrified vehicle production

Turkey’s differentiation potential lies in responsiveness rather than scale.

CONCLUSION

Advanced manufacturing is no longer a question of industrial capacity alone. It is a question of how countries translate national strategy into firm-level capabilities that create resilience, influence, and long-term competitiveness.

Those who succeed will not withdraw from globalization, they will redefine their role within it, by reducing critical supply-chain disruptions by an estimated 30–50%, and convert industrial capability into economic resilience, geopolitical influence, and long-term competitiveness.